Omugga Atmospheric River, ARkStorm, ne Pineapple Express: Orographic Enkuba ku muzira Amataba n’okusengula okukulugguka kw’amazzi mu bbibiro¶

Omugga ogw’omu bbanga (AR) gwe kkubo erikuŋŋaanyiziddwa, eritambula amangu ery’omukka gw’amazzi mu troposphere eya wansi (typically 400 to 600 kilometers / 250 to 375 miles wide era 2,000+ kilometers / 1,250+ miles long, nga yeebagadde mu maaso g’omuyaga ogw’ebweru w’obutiti ogw’omu maaso ennyogovu mu mugga gwa jet ogw’omutindo ogwa wansi) ogutambuza amazzi amangi okuyita mu bbanga buli sikonda nga emirundi 15 ku 25 egy’okukulukuta kwa wakati okw’omugga Mississippi ku mumwa gwagwo (or up to 2.5 times the flow of the Amazon River). Omugga ogw'omu bbanga ogw'obutiti nga "Pineapple Express" (ogusika empewo ebuguma, erimu obunnyogovu butereevu okuva mu bitundu eby'obutiti okumpi ne Hawaii) bwe gukuba ekiziyiza ky'ensozi ez'oku lubalama lw'ennyanja nga Sierra Nevada, Cascades, Coast Ranges, Southern Alps of New Zealand, Chilean Andes, oba ensozi za Bulaaya ey'amaserengeta, ettaka liwaliriza omugga ogwo ogw'omukka okugenda waggulu ennyo (okusitula orographic). Empewo ennyogovu esuula enkuba 150 ku 500+ millimeters (6 to 20+ inches) mu ssaawa 24 ku 72, ate tropical freezing level esukka mita 2,500 ku 3,000 (8,200 ku 9,800 feet) efulumya enkuba ey’ebbugumu ey’amaanyi butereevu ku muzira omuzito ogw’ensozi (Enkuba ku muzira [ROS] amataba), okuleeta akatyabaga ebifunfugu oluvannyuma lw’omuliro gw’omu nsiko okukulukuta, okuyita waggulu w’emigga egy’omu ttaka erya wansi, n’okukaka ebidiba eby’okungulu okuyingira mu emergency auxiliary spillways, nga eno okukulugguka kw’ebituli mu sipiidi ey’amaanyi n’okukulugguka kw’emigga egy’oku mutwe biyinza okutiisa okulemererwa kw’ebbibiro ery’akatyabaga (nga bwe kyalagibwa mu USGS ARkStorm [Atmospheric River 1,000] ekifaananyi ky’omuyaga omunene era nga kyalagibwa mu kiseera ky’obuzibu bw’amazzi agakulukuta mu bbibiro lya Oroville mu 2017). Singa omuyaga gwa AR Category 4 (Extreme) oba Category 5 (Exceptional), Flash Flood Emergency, Post-Wildfire Debris Flow Warning, oba Dam / Spillway Evacuation Order efulumizibwa ku basin yo, senguka ku mabbali ku ttaka erya waggulu amangu ddala era oyite ow’omu kitundu kyo ennamba z’amangu singa esibira amazzi agagenda galinnya. Ku mbeera ez’amangu ezikwatagana n’amataba n’okusereba, weebuuze ku bakulembeze baffe baganda baffe ku... emigga egy’omu bbanga, okumenya ebiwonvu, n’amataba mu biwonvu okumala ebbanga eddene, . ebifunfugu ebikulukuta oluvannyuma lw’omuliro gw’ensiko, ebitosi ebibuguma mu bitundu by’amazzi ebyayokebwa, n’ebiwujjo by’amazzi agakulukuta, . ennyanja glacial lake outburst amataba n’okusengula ddaamu okulemererwa, era amataba agagwa mu bbanga.

Olw’okuba ARkStorm oba AR Family ekwatagana n’omugongo (eggaali y’omukka ey’emigga 3 ku 9 egy’omu bbanga nga gikuba ekitundu ky’amazzi kye kimu ekijjudde mu wiiki 2 ku 3) ekooza ddala okunyiga ettaka n’okutereka okufuga amataba mu tterekero nga omuyaga ogusembayo tegunnatuuka na kutuuka ku lukalu, okuwangaala kisinziira ku kusoma Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) okuteebereza, rada y’omutindo gw’omuzira, ne okukuuma ebidiba eby’okungulu okusinziira ku bitundu ku kikumi eby’okutereka mu bidiba by’amataba ng’ennaku tezinnabaawo mataba wansi w’ekiwonvu kyo.

Kino kikole kati¶

1. Senguka mangu bw’oba obeera wansi w’enkovu ey’okwokya omuliro gw’ensiko (eyayokebwa mu myaka 1 ku 3 egiyise) era emiwendo gy’enkuba giteeberezebwa okusukka 12 to 20 millimeters (0.5 to 0.8 inches) per hour. Tolinda TO kulaba bitoomi oba mazzi mu luggya lwo, era togezaako "kwekweka ku mwaliiro ogwokubiri oba akasolya" mu kifo ekikulukutira ebisasiro oluvannyuma lw'omuliro. Okwawukana ku mataba g’omugga ag’amazzi, okukulukuta kw’ebisasiro eby’okwokya-enkovu kwe a 50 to 80 km/h (30 to 50 mph) bbugwe w’ebitosi ebinywevu, ebikonge by’emiti, n’amayinja amanene aga granite agaweza ttani 10 (with the density of wet concrete, -2.0 g/cm3) esala ennyumba ez’emyaliiro ebiri n’eyonja emisingi gyazo mu sikonda ntono.
2. Bw’oba obeera mu kiwonvu ky’omugga oba ekiwonvu wansi wa ddaamu ennene era ab’obuyinza ne bafulumya ekiragiro ky’okusengula ekkubo ery’amangu / Dam Failure Evacuation Order, senguka PERPENDICULAR (laterally) to the river channel toward high valley walls. Do NOT drive downstream along the river highway trying to outrun a dam breach or emergency spillway release wave, kubanga amayengo agakulukuta agamenya ebbibiro gatambula wansi mu kiwonvu ku 20 to 50 kilometers per hour (12 to 30 miles per hour) era n’esukkulumye ku kalippagano k’ebidduka akali wansi w’ebiwonvu. Vuga oba okulinnya butereevu waggulu ku lusozi olw’ebbali olusinga okumpi okutuuka waakiri mita 15 ku 30 (fuuti 50 ku 100) waggulu w’olusozi lw’omugga.
3. Kebera ennamba bbiri enkulu nga buli mugga ogw’omu bbanga ogw’omutendera 3, 4, oba 5 tegunnabaawo: Omutindo gw’okutonnya kw’omuyaga (Snow Level) n’obusobozi bw’ekidiba kyo ekya Upstream Reservoir’s Flood-Pool.
4. Singa omuyaga ogw’okutonnya gulinnya okuva 1,200 meters (4,000 feet) okutuuka ku 2,500+ meters (8,200+ feet), enkumi n’enkumi za square kilometers z’omuzira ogw’oku nsozi zikyuka mangu okuva ku kunyiga omuzira okudda ku kuyiwa omuzira ogw’amaanyi Enkuba ku muzira, ne gukubisaamu amazzi agayingira mu migga emirundi 3 okutuuka ku mirundi 5 mu ssaawa 6.
5. Singa ekidiba kyo ekiri waggulu w’omugga kiba dda ku ** .> 90% to 100% of Top of Flood Control Pool / Gross Pool**, buli kiyuubi mita y’amazzi agakulukuta ku nsozi agayingira galina okusuulibwa butereevu wansi mu mugga nga gayita mu kkubo erikulu oba ery’amangu.
6. Tovugangako nga weetooloola ebiziyiza "Road Closed" oba okuyita mu makubo agakulukuta wansi, causeways, oba levee roads (Turn Around, Don't Drown). Sentimita 15 zokka (yinsi 6) ez’amazzi agatambula amangu gakoona omuntu omukulu okuva ku bigere bye; Sentimita 30 (yinsi 12) etengejja mmotoka y’abasaabaze; ne sentimita 45 ku 60 (yinsi 18 ku 24) zisenya mmotoka za SUV enzito ne pikipiki okuva ku kkubo ne ziyingira mu myala emiwanvu egy’amazzi.
7. Bw'oba obeera emabega w'omugga ogw'ebbumba mu kitundu eky'omu ttaka ekya wansi (nga Sacramento-San Joaquin Central Valley, Fraser Valley, oba Rhine/Po plains) n'olaba amazzi ag'ebitosi nga gakulukuta mu luggya lwo oba mu mwala gwo ("omusenyu gufumba"), fuluma mangu. Ekitosi ekifuba ky'omusenyu ekifuluma emabega w'omugga kitegeeza nti puleesa y'omugga enkulu ekola okuyisa payipu n’okusiba emikutu gy’ettaka ly’omusingi wansi w’omugga; okumenya okuyita mu levee okw’akatyabaga kuyinza okugoberera mu ddakiika 15 ku 60.
8. Kuuma leediyo ya NOAA Weather Radio ekola ku bbaatule, essimu ya WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) esobozesa, n’okupakira Go-Bag ku kitanda kyo mu biseera by’okutuuka ku lukalu lwa AR ekiro. Layini z’omuyaga ogw’omugga ogw’omugga ogw’omu bbanga ogusinga okutta (Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainbands [NCFRs]) n’embeera ez’amangu ez’okuyiwa amazzi mu bbibiro zibeerawo wakati w’ekiro n’... Ssaawa 6:00 ez’oku makya ng’emikutu gy’amasannyalaze n’eminaala gy’amasimu biremye. Bw’oba osibiddwa amataba ag’amangu, linnya ku ddaala erisinga obunene ery’ekizimbe ekirabika obulungi mu nzimba (bwe kiba nga kiri bweru wa bbulder debris-flow chute) era oyite ow’omu kitundu kyo ennamba z’amangu.

Eby’obudde n’amazzi: Orographic Lift, Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainbands (NCFRs), n’embeera ya ARkStorm¶

====================================================================================
     PINEAPPLE EXPRESS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER: OROGRAPHIC LIFT & RAIN-ON-SNOW FLOOD
====================================================================================

   [ SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME (IVT > 750 to 1,250+ kg/m/s) ]
   * Low-Level Jet Wind (60 to 110 km/h) at 1 to 3 km altitude.
   * High Freezing Level: 2,800 to 3,200 m (9,200 to 10,500 ft) --> WARM RAIN
          |
          +---> [ OROGRAPHIC LIFT UP MOUNTAIN BARRIER ]
          |     * Air cools moist-adiabatically -> 200 to 500 mm (8 to 20 in) rain.
          |     * Latent heat of condensation melts deep snowpack (RAIN-ON-SNOW).
          |                                   /\
          |     ///////////////////////////  /  \  (Snow only above 3,000 m)
          |                                 /    \
          v   (Torrential Warm Rain)       /      \
       ~~~~~~~                            /   []   \ <-- Hydrophobic Wildfire
                                         /   /  \   \    Burn Scar -> Debris Flow
                                        /   /    \   \
                                       /   /      \   \
                     [ UPSTREAM DAM & RESERVOIR ]  \   \
                     * Flood Pool hits 100%         \   \
                     * Main & Emergency Spillways -->|   |
          ___________________________________________|___|______
         [ LOWLAND BASIN / VALLEY FLOOR: Levee Overtopping & Breach ]
====================================================================================

1. Ekipimo ky’omugga ogw’omu bbanga ogwa Ralph / CW3E (AR Cat 1 okutuuka ku Cat 5) .¶

2. Ensonga y'omuyaga omunene ogwa USGS "ARkStorm" (Atmospheric River 1,000) kye ki?¶

Ekoleddwa ekitongole kya U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ne bannassaayansi 117, ARkStorm si kirooto kya kuteebereza: kwe kuddamu okuzimba okwesigamiziddwa ku physics okw’ebyafaayo Amataba amanene aga 1861 okutuuka mu 1862 (agafuula ekiwonvu kya California Central Valley ennyanja ey’omunda mu nnyanja eya kiromita 480 obuwanvu n’obugazi bwa kiromita 30, n’enyiga Sacramento wansi wa 3 mita z’amazzi) ezitungiddwa wamu okuva mu biseera bibiri ebituufu eby’emigga egy’omu bbanga (January 1969 and February 1986). - Geologic sediment cores okuva mu bifo eby’oku lubalama lw’ennyanja ne Santa Barbara Basin varves zikakasa nti ARkStorm-scale megastorms zikuba North American West Coast nga buli myaka 100 okutuuka ku 200 (an annual exceedance probability between 1-in-100 and 1-in-500). - Lwaki Amaka ga AR Gasaanyaawo Nnyo: ARkStorm erimu omutendera gw’ennaku 20 okutuuka ku 40 ogw’omuyaga gwa AR Cat 3, Cat 4, ne Cat 5 oguddirira** nga guyimiridde olw’omugga oguziyiza empewo. Embuyaga ebbiri ezisooka zijjuza ettaka ly’ensozi okutuuka ku... 100% obusobozi bw’ennimiro n’okujjuza ebifo ebiri waggulu w’amazzi okutuuka waggulu ku bidiba byabwe ebifuga amataba; omuyaga ogw’okusatu n’ogwokuna ogw’ebbugumu ogwa Pineapple Express bwe gukuba ku Nnaku 15 okutuuka ku 25, kumpi ebitundu 100 ku 100 eby’enkuba etonnya n’okusaanuuka kw’omuzira bikyuka mangu ne bifuuka amazzi agakulukuta ku ttaka.

Obulabe busatu obw’enjawulo okuva ku nsozi okudda mu kiwonvu mu kiseera ky’omugga ogw’omu bbanga¶

1. Okukulukuta kw’ebisasiro eby’okwokya-enkovu ebiziyiza amazzi oluvannyuma lw’omuliro (Ebiva mu NCFRs) .¶

Omuliro ogw’omu nsiko bwe gwokya ebibira bya chaparral, payini oba eucalyptus ku maanyi amangi, wax z’ebimera ezifuuse omukka zikwatagana sentimita 2 ku 5 wansi w’ettaka, ne zifumba oluwuzi olugoba amazzi (amazzi) oluyiwa amazzi g’enkuba ng’oluguudo lwa kolaasi. - The Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband (NCFR) Trigger: Ne munda mu kibuyaga ow’ekigero AR Cat 2 oba Cat 3, omugonvu ng’enviiri (5 km wide) layini ya convective squall okuyita mu maaso ennyogovu eyitibwa NCFR esobola okusuula ** .15 to 40 millimeters (0.6 to 1.6 inches) of rain in just 15 to 30 minutes**. - Runoff Amplification: Ekipimo ky’enkuba etonnya oluvannyuma lw’omuliro ekya USGS kiraga nti enkuba etonnya eddakiika 15 amaanyi gasukka 24 mm/hr (0.95 in/hr) ku nkovu empya ey’okwokya (1 to 2 years post-fire) eggyawo oluwuzi lwonna olw’ettaka olw’okungulu ng’eyita mu kukulugguka kw’ettaka n’okukulugguka kw’ettaka, n’ezimba n’evvu, ebikondo, n’amayinja aganene ng’emmotoka mu kifo ekigenda amangu okukulukuta kw’ebisasiro (30 to 80 km/h) ekutuka okuva mu biwonvu by’ensozi okuyita mu biwujjo by’amazzi agakulukuta mu bitundu by’ebyalo (nga bwe kyali mu kukulukuta kw’ebifunfugu okwatta okwa January 2018 Montecito, California).

2. Okusoma Upstream Dam & Reservoir Levels n’okulabula ku Spillway Cavitation¶

Bw’oba olondoola ebbibiro lyo eriri waggulu mu kiseera ky’omugga ogw’omu bbanga (ng’oyita mu mikutu gy’amazzi egy’amasaza/federo nga California CDEC, USACE Water Management, oba USBR), tegeera zoni ennya ezeesimbye ez’ekidiba n’engeri emikutu gy’amazzi gye giremeramu:

====================================================================================
       ANATOMY OF A DAM RESERVOIR POOL & SPILLWAY CAVITATION / EROSION FAILURE
====================================================================================

   [ DAM CREST (Top of Earthen / Concrete Dam: Overtopping = Total Dam Breach) ]
  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   [ SURCHARGE / EMERGENCY POOL ] --> Flows over UNLINED EMERGENCY AUXILIARY WEIR
                                      >>> Risk: Headward gully erosion cuts back
                                          toward weir crest -> Uncontrolled release
  =================== [ TOP OF FLOOD CONTROL POOL (100% Gross Capacity) ] ==========
   [ FLOOD CONTROL POOL (Reserved empty in winter to catch AR flood inflows) ]
   * Discharged through Concrete PRIMARY SERVICE SPILLWAY (Radial Gates).
   * >>> Risk at high flow: Joint uplift / CAVITATION blows out concrete slabs ->
         High-pressure jet scours earthen dam abutment
  =================== [ TOP OF CONSERVATION POOL (Normal Winter Max Level) ] =======
   [ CONSERVATION / ACTIVE STORAGE POOL (Water Supply & Hydroelectric Turbines) ]
  ==================================================================================
   [ DEAD POOL (Sediment Storage & Low-Level River Outlet Works) ]
====================================================================================

• Engeri Concrete Primary Spillways Suffer Stagnation-Pressure Uplift and Cavitation: Amazzi bwe gakuba wansi mu kifo ekiwanvu ekya seminti spillway chute ku sipiidi ya mita 25 ku 40 buli sikonda (mayiro 55 ku 90 buli ssaawa), amaanyi abiri ag’omubiri galumba ebipande bya seminti:
• Stagnation-Pressure Hydraulic Jacking: Singa amazzi aga sipiidi enkulu gayingira mu nnyatika entono ey’enviiri oba ekiyungo ekitali kikyuka wakati w’ebipande bibiri ebya seminti (even a 5-millimeter lip), amasoboza ag’ekiddukano aga 30 m/s amazzi gakyuka mu kaseera ako ne gafuuka puleesa y’okusitula okutambula wansi w’olubaawo (hydraulic jacking), ne gakutula ebipande bya seminti obuwanvu mita emu butereevu okuva wansi wa chute ne gabikkula omusingi gw’ettaka omugonvu wansi okusekulwa mu ngeri ey’amaanyi.
• Vapor Cavitation Implosion: Amazzi we gakulukuta amangu ku kikonde oba enjatika ku chute, puleesa y’amazzi mu kitundu ekka wansi wa puleesa y’omukka, ne gakola obukadde n’obukadde bw’ebiwujjo by’omukka ebitonotono. Nga wayise milisekondi, nga ebiwujjo ebyo bisenya mu puleesa eya waggulu wansi w’omugga, bikutuka mu ngeri esukkulumye ku maloboozi, ne bikuba amayengo agawunya aga microscopic agakamula ebituli butereevu nga gayita mu seminti omugumu n’ekyuma.
• Obubonero Obulabula Okulaba Wansi w’Ebbibiro: Bw’olaba ekiwujjo ky’amazzi ekyeru nga kikyuka mangu kitaka ow’ebitosi oba kiragala-emicungwa (ekitegeeza nti ekyuma ekikuba amazzi kimenye mu kisenge kya seminti era nga kisima olusozi olw’ebbumba), oba singa abaddukanya embeera ez’amangu balangirira nti ekidiba kino kijja kusukka ekkubo lyakyo erya unlined emergency auxiliary spillway omulundi ogusoose mu byafaayo, pakinga era osengule ekitundu ekibooga wansi mu mugga nga tebannaba kutuuka ku crests z’oluguudo lw’amazzi olw’amangu.

Omulongooti gw’okugeraageranya: Okukulukuta kw’ebisasiro oluvannyuma lw’omuliro gw’ensiko okusinziira ku Dam Spillway / Breach Surge vs. Lowland Basin Levee Flood¶

Omuti gw’okusalawo ku kulonda mu mbeera ey’amangu¶

flowchart TD
    A["AR Cat 3, Cat 4, oba Cat 5 Embeera y’omugga / ennaanansi Express Okuteebereza"] --> B{"Laba Ekitundu kyo eky’obulabe mu bitundu"}
    B -- "Zooni 1: Mu kiromita 5 wansi w’enkovu y’okwokya omuliro ogw’omu nsiko ogw’emyaka < 3" --> C["HIGH DEBRIS-FLOW LETHALITY:: 1. TOLINDA nkuba kutandika; evacuate nga Evacuation Warning/Order issues: 2. Tosula ku mwaliiro ogwokubiri oba akasolya (amayinja gamenya amayumba): 3. Singa osibira ekiro olw’okuwuluguma kw’ebitosi: sprint laterally uphill perpendicular to creek"]
    B -- "Zooni 2: Mu River Canyon oba Valley Wansi wa Major Dam" --> D{"Kebera Embeera y'okutereka ebidiba & Spillway"}
    D -- "Main spillway eroding (brown plume) OBA Emergency Auxiliary Spillway enaatera okutuuka ku ntikko" --> E["OKUSENGULA OKW’AMAANYI KU BIBIRO:: 1. Senguka KU BIKOZESEBWA (perpendicular to river) waggulu ku bbugwe w’ebiwonvu (+15-30 m): 2. Tovuga wansi mu mugga wansi w’ekiwonvu ky’omugga: 3. Ddira go-bag, eddagala, n’ebisolo by’omu nnyumba ng’enguudo ennene tezinnaba kuzibikira"]
    D -- "Ekidiba wansi Waggulu wa Flood Control Pool & spillway intact" --> F["Okulondoola ebifulumizibwa mu ddaamu entongole; sigala ku lubalama lw’emigga mu biseera by’okufulumya cfs ennene"]
    B -- "Zooni 3: Ekitundu eky’amataba eky’omu ttaka erya wansi / Emabega w’emigga gy’omugga egy’ettaka" --> G{"Kebera Levees & River Stage"}
    G -- "Levee overtopping, slumping, oba muddy Sand Boils nga zibuuka emabega wa levee" --> H["IMMINENT LEVEE BREACH:: 1. Senguka mangu basin ng’oyita mu makubo ag’oku ttaka empanvu: 2. Tovugangako ng’oyita mu mazzi ku nguudo: 3. Bw’oba osibye olw’okulinnya okw’amangu: linnya ku kasolya (tosibirangako mu kisenge eky’okungulu ekiggaddwa)"]
    G -- "Levees nga zikutte" --> I["Weetegekere amasannyalaze okuvaako ennaku eziwera, okuggalwa kw’enguudo, n’okudda emabega kw’amazzi amakyafu"]

Ennamba z’amangu mu bitundu n’emikutu gy’okulondoola emigga / ebbibiro mu bbanga¶

• Amerika (California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Intermountain West): Kuba 911 okutaasa amangu.
• Okuteebereza kwa AR & IVT: Londoola CW3E (Scripps Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes) Enteebereza ya AR Scale ne NOAA / NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Enteekateeka y’enkuba esukkiridde.
• Okukulukuta kw’ebisasiro eby’okwokya-enkovu: Kebera Okukebera obulabe bw’ebifunfugu-okukulukuta oluvannyuma lw’omuliro gwa USGS n’okulabula okw’amangu okutaliiko waya mu ssaza (Ready.gov / . CalAlerts).
• Dam & Reservoir Levels: Londoola okutereka mu kiseera ekituufu n’okufuluma kw’amazzi agakulukuta okuyita mu California Data Exchange Center (CDEC), USACE Access to Water, ne U.S. Ekitongole ekikola ku by’okuzzaawo eby’obugagga eby’omu ttaka (USBR).
• Canada (British Columbia & Atlantic Canada): Kuba 911. Okulondoola Ensimbi n'enkyukakyuka y'obudde Canada (ECCC) Ebipimo by'emigga egy'empewo, BC River Forecast Centre okulabula, n'okuweereza ku mpewo Alert Ready.
• Bungereza ne Ireland: Kuba 999 oba 112. Emigga egy’omu bbanga egy’omu kiseera ky’obutiti mu Atlantic (egivunaanyizibwa ku mataba agakwata ku likodi mu Cumbria, Wales, ne Scotland) girondoolebwa Met Office, Environment Agency, SEPA, ne Natural Resources Wales.
• Omukago gwa Bulaaya & Norway: Kuba 112. Olondoole okulabula ng’oyita mu Meteoalarm, NVE (Norway), n’empeereza y’amazzi mu ggwanga.
• Australia, New Zealand, Chile & East Asia: Kuba 000 (Australia), 111 (New Zealand, MetService Westland/Southern Alps AR okulabula), 131 / 132 (Chile SENAPRED), oba 119 (Japan JMA linear rainbands / Senjo-Kousuitai), oba kebera ennamba z’amangu.

Ebibuuzo ebitera okubuuzibwa¶

Njawulo ki eriwo wakati w’omugga ogw’omu bbanga ogw’omutendera 1 n’ogw’omutendera ogw’okutaano ogw’omu bbanga ku minzaani ya NOAA / CW3E?¶

Ralph/CW3E Atmospheric River Scale esengeka emiyaga okuva ku AR Cat 1 (Weak) okutuuka ku AR Cat 5 (Exceptional) okusinziira ku bipimo bibiri eby’omubiri mu kifo ekiweereddwa: entikko ey’okutambuza omukka (IVT), epimiddwa mu kkiro z’omukka gw’amazzi ogukulukuta okuyita mu mpagi eyeesimbye mu bugazi bwa mita emu buli sikonda) n’essaawa mmeka ez’omuddiring’anwa IVT z’esigala waggulu wa 250 kkiro/m/s. AR Cat 1 etambuza kkiro 250 ku 500/m/s okumala essaawa ezitakka wansi wa 24 era efulumya enkuba ey’omugaso n’omuzira ogw’oku nsozi. AR Cat 5 eyimirizaawo omukka oguyitiridde ogwa 1,000 ku 1,500+ kg/m/s okumala essaawa 24 ku 72+, n’esuula enkuba ya milimita 250 ku 600 (yinsi 10 ku 24) ku nsozi era n’ereeta amataba ag’akatyabaga mu kitundu kyonna, okubumbulukuka kw’ettaka, n’embeera ez’amangu mu kkubo eriyiwa amazzi.

Lwaki omuyaga ogw’ebbugumu ogwa Pineapple Express gusaanuusa omuzira ogw’oku nsozi amangu nnyo okusinga obudde obw’omusana obw’omu nsenyi?¶

Mu mugga ogw’omu bbanga ogwa Pineapple Express, empewo ebuguma era erimu ebitundu 100 ku 100 eby’omu bitundu eby’obutiti efuuwa okuyita mu muzira ogw’oku nsozi ku sipiidi ya kiromita 50 ku 100 buli ssaawa ng’omuzira gusukka mita 2,800 (fuuti 9,200). Wadde ng’ebbugumu ly’amatondo g’enkuba agagwa lyenyini lisaanuusa omuzira mutono nnyo, empewo ey’akatabanguko evuga okufuumuuka okw’amaanyi okw’omukka gw’amazzi butereevu ku muzira omunnyogovu. Buli gram y’omukka gw’amazzi ogukwatagana ku muzira gufulumya ebbugumu erikusike erya Joules 2,500, amaanyi agamala okusaanuusa gram 7.5 eza ice. Ng’ogasseeko ebbugumu ly’empewo eritegeerekeka, omumuli guno ogw’empewo gusaanuusa mangu milimita 50 ku 150 ez’amazzi ag’amazzi okuva mu muzira ate enkuba ya milimita 200+ n’etonnya waggulu, n’ekubisaamu emirundi ebiri oba esatu entikko z’amataba g’emigga.

Lwaki tosobola kuwona bifunfugu ebikulukuta oluvannyuma lw’omuliro ng’olinnya ku mwaliiro ogwokubiri oba akasolya k’ennyumba yo?¶

Mu mataba g’omugga aga bulijjo agasituka mpola, okulinnya ku mwaliiro ogwokubiri oba akasolya kikukuuma waggulu w’amazzi ng’ennyumba esigala ng’eyimiridde. Okukulukuta kw’ebisasiro oluvannyuma lw’okwokya omuliro-enkovu si mazzi mazzi: ge mazzi agajjudde ebitosi ebitundu 60 ku 80 ku buli 100, evvu, emiti gya payini egyasimbuddwa, n’amayinja ga granite aga ttani 5 ku 20 agatambula ku sipiidi ya kiromita 30 ku 80 buli ssaawa nga galina density ya seminti omubisi (2.0 grams per cubic centimeter). Ebifunfugu ebijjudde amayinja bwe bikuba amaka agafumbiddwa mu mbaawo oba amatoffaali, amaanyi g’okukuba gasinga amazzi amayonjo emirundi 10 ku 50, ne gasala ennyumba yonna ku musingi gwayo ne gasena omwaliiro ogusooka n’ogw’okubiri awamu. Olina okusenguka okuva mu kitundu ekikulukuta ebifunfugu nga enkuba tennatuuka.

Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband (NCFR) kye ki, era lwaki y’esinga okuba ey’akabi mu ddakiika 30 ez’omugga ogw’omu bbanga?¶

Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband (NCFR) ye ribiini ey’effujjo, obugazi bwa kiromita 3 ku 8, ey’amazzi amangi agakulukuta wansi n’enkuba ey’amaanyi etonnya ng’eyingidde ddala ku mabbali g’omugga ogw’omu bbanga ogukulembedde mu maaso ennyogovu. Ne bwe kiba nti omuyaga okutwalira awamu guba gwa AR Cat 2 oba Cat 3 ogw’ekigero gwokka, okuyita kwa NCFR ku lusozi kuyiwa enkuba ya milimita 15 ku 40 (yinsi 0.6 ku 1.6) mu ddakiika 15 ku 30 zokka, ng’emirundi mingi ewerekerwako empewo eya kiromita 90 buli ssaawa n’enkuba enafu. Enkuba eyo eyabutuka ey’eddakiika 15 esala mangu ekipimo ky’amaanyi ga USGS (24 mm/hr) ekivaako okukulukuta kw’ebisasiro eby’akatyabaga oluvannyuma lw’omuliro gw’ensiko n’amataba amangi mu bibuga.

Obuzibu bw’amazzi agakulukuta mu bbibiro ly’e Oroville mu 2017 bwagwa butya, era bubonero ki obulabula obukulembera okugwa kw’amazzi mu mangu?¶

Mu February 2017, oluvannyuma lwa wiiki eziwera ng’emigga egy’amaanyi egy’omu bbanga gyajjula ennyanja Oroville mu California, amazzi ag’amaanyi agaali gakuba amasasi wansi mu kkubo erya seminti erya main service spillway gaayingira mu kizibu ky’ekiyungo kya slab, ne gaggulawo ekinnya ekinene ennyo mu kiyumba kya seminti ne gasenya olusozi olwali olw’ebbumba. Okwewala okusaanyaawo emiryango emikulu egy’amazzi agakulukuta, abaddukanya amazzi baakendeeza ku mazzi agakulukuta ng’omugga ogw’ebbugumu ogw’omu bbanga gukulukuta ne guyingira mu nnyanja, ne kiwaliriza amazzi okusukka ekkubo ery’amangu ery’ebbumba eritaliiko layini omulundi ogusoose bukya bbibiro lino lizimbibwa mu 1968. Amazzi agaali gakulukuta gaakulukuta mangu emigga emiwanvu nga gidda emabega okutuuka ku ntikko y’amazzi ag’amangu eya seminti, ne gatiisa ekifo ekitali kifugibwa Bbugwe w’amazzi wa mita 10 n’okukaka abantu 188,000 okusengula wansi w’omugga. Buli ekidiba lwe kisemberera obusobozi bw’ekidiba ky’amataba ebitundu 100 ku 100 ng’omukutu gwayo omukulu ogw’amazzi agoonoonese oba nga guzibiddwa, abatuuze ababeera wansi w’omugga balina okwetegekera okusengulwa amangu ku mabbali.

‘Ebbugumu ly’omusenyu’ emabega w’omugga oguyitibwa levee kye ki, era lwaki wandisenguka singa olaba?¶

Omugga bwe gusigala waggulu ku mugga ogw’ebbumba okumala ennaku mu kiseera ky’omugga ogw’omu bbanga, puleesa y’amazzi ey’amazzi enkulu ewaliriza amazzi g’omugga okukka wansi nga gayita mu layers z’amayinja ag’omusenyu wansi w’omusingi gw’omugga. Singa amazzi ago agakulukuta wansi w’ettaka agalina puleesa gamenya ettaka ery’okungulu ku ludda olukalu oludda ku lukalu olw’omugga (mu nnimiro, omukutu ogufulumya amazzi, oba mu luggya), gufuumuuka ng’olusozi olutono oluvuuma olwetooloddwa empeta y’omusenyu ogwaakanaazibwa oba omusenyu ogw’ebitosi, oguyitibwa okufumba kw’omusenyu. Ekifumbe ky’omusenyu ekikulukuta amazzi amayonjo kiyinza okuba nga kinywevu, naye ekifuba ky’omusenyu ekipampagira amazzi ag’ebitosi n’empeke z’omusenyu kitegeeza nti omukutu oguli wansi w’ettaka gukulugguka nnyo wansi w’omugga, ekiyinza okuvaako engule y’omusenyu okugwa n’okumenya mu ddakiika ntono.

Ensonda n’obulagirizi obutongole¶

• Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E, Scripps Institution of Oceanography) & National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, Amerika): Ekipimo eky’okulaga amaanyi n’ebikosa emigga egy’omu bbanga (Ralph et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, AR Cat 1 to Cat 5 IVT n’ennyonnyola z’obudde).
• FFE. Okunoonyereza ku ttaka (USGS, Amerika): Okulaba ku mbeera ya ARkStorm (USGS Open-File Report 2010-1312) ne Enteekateeka ya USGS ey’okukebera akabi k’ebisasiro-okukulukuta oluvannyuma lw’omuliro (emitendera gy’amaanyi g’enkuba egy’eddakiika 15 n’enkyukakyuka y’enkuba enfunda ey’enkuba ey’oku mabbali g’enkuba).
• Ekitongole kya Federo ekiddukanya embeera ez’amangu (FEMA) & U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, United States): Ebiragiro bya Federo ku by’okwerinda mu ddaamu, okuteekateeka ebikolwa eby’amangu (FEMA P-64), Spillway Cavitation/Stagnation-Pressure Uplift Mechanics, ne Levee Seepage/Sand Boil Response.
• Alipoota ya ttiimu eyetongodde ey’okunoonyereza ku misango (IFT) ku nsonga y’omugga Oroville Dam Spillway (ASDSO / USSD, United States): Okwekenenya eby’okunoonyereza ku misango gy’okusitula amazzi mu bbibiro ly’amazzi mu mpeereza ya seminti n’okukulugguka kw’omutwe gw’amazzi agakulukuta mu ngeri ey’amangu etaliiko layini.
• Ensimbi n’enkyukakyuka y’obudde Canada (ECCC) & World Meteorological Organization (WMO): Orographic Rain-on-Snow (ROS) Turbulent Latent Heat Flux Physics n’okuteebereza amataba mu bitundu by’emigga.

Ebiragiro ebikwatagana nabyo¶

• Emigga egy’omu bbanga, okumenya ebiwonvu, n’amataba mu biwonvu okumala ebbanga eddene
• Ebifunfugu ebikulukuta oluvannyuma lw’omuliro gw’ensiko bikulukuta, ebitosi ebyokebwa mu bitundu by’amazzi, n’ebiwujjo by’amazzi agakulukuta
• Glacial lake outburst amataba n'okusengula ddaamu okulemererwa
• Amataba ga flash
• Amataba