Osimiri ikuku, ARkStorm, na Pineapple Express: Iju Mmiri mmiri ozuzo na mmiri ozuzo Orographic na mwepu mkpọpu mmiri ozuzo¶
Nọmba mberede dị iche na mba. Ibe a na-eji 911, nọmba maka United States na Canada. Ọtụtụ mba ndị ọzọ na-eji 112, 999, ma ọ bụ nọmba ọzọ. Chọta nọmba maka obodo gị.
Osimiri ** ikuku ikuku (AR)** bụ okporo ụzọ mmiri na-agbakọ ngwa ngwa na troposphere dị ala (typically 400 to 600 kilometers / 250 to 375 miles wide na 2,000+ kilometers / 1,250+ miles long, na-agbago n'ihu ihu oyi nke cyclone extratropical na mmiri jet dị ala) nke na-ebufe mmiri dị ukwuu site na mbara igwe kwa nkeji dịka ** 15 ruo 25 ugboro nkezi nke Osimiri Mississippi n'ọnụ ya ** (or up to 2.5 times the flow of the Amazon River). Mgbe osimiri dị n'akụkụ ikuku dị ka "Pineapple Express" (na-adọta ikuku na-ekpo ọkụ, nke jupụtara na mmiri ozugbo site na ebe okpomọkụ dị nso na Hawaii) na-adaba n'ime ihe mgbochi ugwu dị n'ụsọ oké osimiri dị ka Sierra Nevada, Cascades, Coast Ranges, Southern Alps nke New Zealand, Chilean Andes, ma ọ bụ ugwu ọdịda anyanwụ Europe, ndị agha na-eme ka osimiri ahụ na-ebuli elu (). Mkpofu ikuku dị jụụ ** 150 ruo 500+ millimeters (6 ruo 20+ inch) nke mmiri ozuzo n'ime awa 24 ruo 72 , ebe okpomọkụ ** dị elu karịa mita 2,500 ruo 3,000 (8,200 ruo 9,800 ụkwụ) na-ewepụta oke mmiri ozuzo na-ekpo ọkụ n'elu ugwu na-ekpo ọkụ (SRO) idei mmiri ), na-akpalite ọdachi ** mgbe ọkụ ọkụ gachara, na-asọfe oke osimiri ndị dị ala, na ịmanye ọdọ mmiri ndị dị n'elu n'ime ụzọ enyemaka enyemaka mberede , ebe cavitation dị elu na mbuze gully nwere ike iyi egwu ọdịda dam nke USGS (dị ka atụpụtara na Osimiri US ARmphe. 1,000] ọnọdụ megastorm wee gosipụta n'oge ọgba aghara okporo ụzọ Oroville Dam 2017). Ọ bụrụ na ** AR Category 4 (oke) ma ọ bụ Atiya 5 (pụrụ iche) oké ifufe, ** Mberede Iju Mmiri , ịdọ aka ná ntị na-agbapụta ọkụ ọkụ ọkụ ma ọ bụ ** dam / Spillway Evacuation Order nyere maka mmiri mmiri gị, pụọ n'azụ gaa n'ala dị elu ozugbo wee kpọọ mpaghara gị. nọmba mberede ma ọ bụrụ na ọ tọrọ atọ site na-ebili mmiri. Maka ihe mberede idei mmiri na mkpọda, kpọtụrụ ndị nduzi ụmụnne anyị na ya osimiri ikuku, mgbawa levee, na idei mmiri basin dị ogologo, irighiri ihe na-asọ n'oké ọhịa mgbe ọkụ gasịrị, apịtị mmiri na-agba ọkụ, na ndị na-efe efe, ọdọ mmiri glacial tiwapụrụ idei mmiri na mkpọpu mmiri mgbochi mmiri, na idei mmiri ọkụ.
N'ihi na ARkStorm ma ọ bụ azụ azụ ** AR Ezinụlọ ** (ụgbọ okporo ígwè nke 3 ruo 9 osimiri ikuku na-akụtu otu mmiri mmiri jupụtara n'ime izu 2 ruo 3) kpamkpam na-ekpochapụ nnabata ala na nchekwa mmiri mmiri ozuzo tupu oké ifufe ikpeazụ emee ọdịda, nlanarị na-adabere na ịgụ ** Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT** amụma amụma, ** radar ọkwa snow **, na ** nchekwa nchekwa mmiri dị n'elu megide pasentị nchekwa mmiri-ọdọ mmiri ** ụbọchị tupu iju mmiri gị n'ala ndagwurugwu.
Mee nke a ugbu a¶
- ** Wepụ ozugbo ma ọ bụrụ na ị bi n'okpuru ọkụ ọkụ na-ere ọkụ (ọkụ n'ime afọ 1 ruo 3 gara aga) na ọnụego mmiri ozuzo ga-agafe.
12 to 20 millimeters (0.5 to 0.8 inches) per hour.** Echela ** echere ka ịhụ apịtị ma ọ bụ mmiri n'ogige gị, ma ** anwala mgbe ị ga-echekwa "ụlọ n'ala nke abụọ ma ọ bụ n'elu ụlọ" na mpaghara ihe mkpofu ọkụ na-ekpo ọkụ. N'adịghị ka idei mmiri nke osimiri, mkpọmkpọ ebe ọkụ na-agba bụ a50 to 80 km/h (30 to 50 mph)mgbidi nke apịtị viscous, ogwe osisi, na nkume granite 10-ton (with the density of wet concrete, -2.0 g/cm3) nke na-akpacha ụlọ nwere okpukpu abụọ na-ekpochapụ ntọala ha n'ime sekọnd. - ** Ọ bụrụ na ị na-ebi n'osimiri ma ọ bụ ndagwurugwu dị n'okpuru nnukwu dam na ndị ọchịchị na-enye iwu Mberede Spillway / Dam Failure Evacuation Order, wepụ PERPENDICULAR (n'akụkụ) n'akụkụ osimiri ahụ n'akụkụ mgbidi ndagwurugwu dị elu ozugbo. Canyon na
20 to 50 kilometers per hour (12 to 30 miles per hour)ma gafere okporo ụzọ mgbaka nke ndagwurugwu. Ụgbọala ma ọ bụ rịgoro n'akụkụ ugwu kacha nso ka ọ dịkarịa ala ** 15 ruo 30 mita (50 ruo 100 feet)** n'elu ala ahịhịa. - ** Lelee ọnụọgụ abụọ dị egwu n'ihu Udi 3, 4, ma ọ bụ 5 ọ bụla nke ikuku ikuku: Ọkwa oke mmiri ozuzo (
Snow Level) na ikike Iju mmiri-ọdọ mmiri gị nke dị n'elu.** - Ọ bụrụ na oke mmiri ozuzo na-ebilite site na
1,200 meters (4,000 feet)na2,500+ meters (8,200+ feet), puku kwuru puku kilomita square nke oke snoo na-agbanwe na mberede site na ịmịnye snow gaa na-awụfu oke mmiri ** mmiri ozuzo na-asọpụta na mmiri ozuzo **, na-abawanye ntinye osimiri ** okpukpu atọ ruo okpukpu ise *** n'ime awa isii. - Ọ bụrụ na mmiri mmiri gị dị n'elu adịlarị na **
> 90% to 100%N'elu ọdọ mmiri na-achịkwa Iju mmiri / nnukwu ọdọ mmiri **, mita cubic ọ bụla nke mmiri mmiri na-abata n'ugwu ga-awụpụ ya ozugbo site na isi mmiri ma ọ bụ ihe mberede. - Enwela ụgbọala gafeta ihe mgbochi "Okporo ụzọ mechiri emechi" ma ọ bụ site n'okporo ụzọ ide mmiri juru, okporo ụzọ, ma ọ bụ okporo ụzọ levee (
Turn Around, Don't Drown. Naanị ** centimita iri na ise (inch isii)** nke mmiri na-agba ọsọ na-akụpụ okenye n'ụkwụ; ** centimita 30 (inch iri na abụọ)** na-ese n'ụgbọ ala ndị njem; na ** 45 ruo 60 centimita (18 ruo 24 sentimita asatọ)** na-ekpochapụ SUVs dị arọ na gwongworo buru ibu na pavement banye n'ọwa mmiri miri emi. - ** Ọ bụrụ na ị na-ebi n'azụ levee ụrọ na mmiri dị larịị (dị ka Sacramento-San Joaquin Central Valley, Fraser Valley, or Rhine/Po plains) wee hụ na mmiri apịtị na-agbapụta n'ogige gị ma ọ bụ olulu ("aja na-esi ísì"), pụọ ozugbo.* ** n'okpuru *** levee; oke mbibi site na levee nwere ike iso n'ime nkeji 15 ruo 60.
- ** Debe redio Weather NOAA nke batrị nwere batrị, ekwentị WEA (Wireless Emergency Alert) na-akwado, yana akpa Go-Bag n'akụkụ ihe ndina gị n'oge ọdịda AR nke abalị.* Osimiri kachasị egbu egbu nke ikuku oyi-frontal squall (** warara oyi-Frontal Rainbands [NCFRs] na-apụta n'etiti abalị na abalị 6) ike grids na cell ụlọ elu dara. Ọ bụrụ na idei mmiri dị n'ọnyà, rịgoro n'ọkwa kachasị elu nke ụlọ nwere ụda arụrụ arụ (naanị ma ọ bụrụ n'èzí ebe a na-ekpofu ihe mkpofu nkume) wee kpọọ mpaghara gị. nọmba mberede.
Kedu ihe kpatara osimiri 'ekpo ọkụ' nke ikuku (Pineapple Express) na-ebute oke idei mmiri mmiri ozuzo na snow (ROS), yana ihe kpatara na mmiri ozuzo n'onwe ya abụghị ihe na-agbaze snow
Akụkọ ifo juru ebe niile bụ na mmiri ozuzo na-ekpo ọkụ na-ada na snow na-agbaze mkpọ snow site na ikpo ọkụ nke mmiri ozuzo. ** Thermodynamics na-egosi na ọ bụghị: *** n'ihi na okpomọkụ nke mmiri mmiri dị ntakịrị (4.18 J/g/C) ma e jiri ya tụnyere okpomọkụ latent achọrọ iji gbazee ice (334 J/g), 100 millimeters nke 10 C (50 F) mmiri ozuzo na-ada 0 C snow na-agbaze naanị obere ihe 12 millimeters nke mmiri snoo dabara na mmiri ozuzo naanị. ** Ezigbo onye na-egbu ihe na Pineapple Express Rain-on-Snow bụ ihe na-eme ka ọ ghara ịdị na-ekpo ọkụ na-ekpo ọkụ na ikuku ikuku:** 50 to 90 km/h ọkụ na-ekpo ọkụ, 100% Ikuku ikuku dị n'okpuru ebe okpomọkụ na-efefe n'okpo mmiri oyi, uzuoku mmiri na-agbakọta ozugbo n'elu snow, na-ahapụ **2,500 Joules per gram nke okpomọkụ latent *** (7.5 times enough energy to melt an equal mass of ice). Ejikọtara ya na mmiri saturation mmiri snoo chara acha, ọkụ ikuku ikuku na-agbaze ** 50 ruo 150 milimita (2 ruo 6 sentimita) nke mmiri mmiri sitere na akpa snow N'elu 200+ millimita nke mmiri ozuzo na-ada, na-ewepụta mgbidi mmiri gbapụrụ agbapụ.
Kedu ihe kpatara mgbawa mmiri na-adịghị akwụ ụgwọ ( inyeaka) bụ ihe egwu dị egwu mgbe ọ gafere
Ọtụtụ nnukwu dams nwere okporo ụzọ abụọ na-asọpu: ihe eji eme ihe ** Primary (Service) Spillway ** na-achịkwa ọnụ ụzọ radial ígwè (designed to pass normal flood inflows), na ** Mberede (Auxiliary) Spillway , nke n'ọtụtụ dam ochie bụ naanị ** enweghị akwa, ala-na-rock hillside weir ** emebere ka ejiri naanị otu ugboro n'ime afọ 500 ruo 1,000 ma ọ bụrụ na ụzọ mbupu isi plọg ma ọ bụ daa. Mgbe mmiri nchekwa mmiri na-awụpụ n'okporo ụzọ mberede ụrọ na-enweghị eriri n'ọtụtụ iri puku cubic ụkwụ kwa nkeji, mmiri na-asọpụta na-ewepụ ala dị n'elu na akwa akwa ihu ( n'isi knickpoint mpesa *), na-akpụ nnukwu mmiri miri emi na-aga azụ n'ebe a na-ahụ anya. Ọ bụrụ na nsụda mmiri ahụ na-emebi emebi na-agbadata n'ụzọ niile site na mkpọpu mmiri mberede, ọ nwere ike hapụ mgbidi nchekwa mmiri nke dị mita 10 ruo 15 (ụkwụ 33 ruo 50) na-achịkwaghị achịkwa n'ofe osimiri ahụ.
Otu esi agụ CW3E / NOAA Ralph Scale (AR Cat 1 ruo AR Cat 5) tupu oké ifufe abịa.
Mepụtara na 2019 site n'aka F. Martin Ralph na ndị ọrụ ibe ya na ** Scripps Institution of Oceanography Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)****** nakweere ya ** NOAA**, ** Atmospheric River Scale (AR Cat 1 to AR Cat 5)*** na-ebute oke mmiri ozuzo site na njem ụgbọ mmiri abụọ nke Maximumetric.IVT, na kilogram nke vapo mmiri kwa mita kwa nkeji; kg/m/s*** na ** Ogologo oge IVT >= 250 kg/m/s** karịrị otu ebe. Ebe ** AR Cat 1 ma ọ bụ Cat 2** na-abakarị uru (ebe a na-ejuputa mmiri), ihe ** AR Cat 4 (oke)** ma ọ bụ ** AR Cat 5 (pụrụiche)** na-adịgide adịgide. 24 to 72+ hours N'elu ala mmiri ugbua bụ nnukwu ihe mberede idei mmiri na-eyi ndụ egwu.
Meteorology & Hydrology: Orographic Lift, warara oyi-Frontal Rainbands (NCFRs), na ARkStorm Scenario.¶
====================================================================================
PINEAPPLE EXPRESS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER: OROGRAPHIC LIFT & RAIN-ON-SNOW FLOOD
====================================================================================
[ SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME (IVT > 750 to 1,250+ kg/m/s) ]
* Low-Level Jet Wind (60 to 110 km/h) at 1 to 3 km altitude.
* High Freezing Level: 2,800 to 3,200 m (9,200 to 10,500 ft) --> WARM RAIN
|
+---> [ OROGRAPHIC LIFT UP MOUNTAIN BARRIER ]
| * Air cools moist-adiabatically -> 200 to 500 mm (8 to 20 in) rain.
| * Latent heat of condensation melts deep snowpack (RAIN-ON-SNOW).
| /\
| /////////////////////////// / \ (Snow only above 3,000 m)
| / \
v (Torrential Warm Rain) / \
~~~~~~~ / [] \ <-- Hydrophobic Wildfire
/ / \ \ Burn Scar -> Debris Flow
/ / \ \
/ / \ \
[ UPSTREAM DAM & RESERVOIR ] \ \
* Flood Pool hits 100% \ \
* Main & Emergency Spillways -->| |
___________________________________________|___|______
[ LOWLAND BASIN / VALLEY FLOOR: Levee Overtopping & Breach ]
====================================================================================
1. Oke Osimiri ikuku Ralph / CW3E (AR Cat 1 ruo Cat 5)¶
| Otu AR | Kachasị IVT ike (kg/m/s) & Ogologo oge (at >= 250 kg/m/s) |
Uru vs. Ntụle Dị ize ndụ | Mmetụta Hydrologic na akụrụngwa |
|---|---|---|---|
| ** AR Cat 1 (adịghị ike)** | IVT 250 to 500 kg/m/s maka < 24 hours |
** Nke kacha baa uru *** | Ìhè ka mmiri ozuzo na-agafeghị oke na snow ugwu; na-emejupụta mmiri ala na mmiri mmiri na obere ihe ize ndụ mpụta. |
| ** AR nwamba 2 (dị oke oke)** | IVT 250 to 500 kg/m/s (24 to 48 hrs) MA ọ bụ 500 to 750 kg/m/s (< 24 hrs) |
** Ọ bara uru, dịkwa ize ndụ *** | Ịgbanye mmiri mmiri bara uru; Ntụgharị n'okporo ụzọ obodo mepere emepe na obere iyi na-ebili ma ọ bụrụ na ala ejuolarị. |
| ** AR Cat 3 (siri ike)** | IVT 500 to 750 kg/m/s (24 to 48 hrs) MA ọ bụ 750 to 1,000 kg/m/s (< 24 hrs) |
** Nhazi nke bara uru na ihe ize ndụ *** | Osimiri dị ịrịba ama na-ebili; apịtị na-agba ọkụ na nso nso a ma ọ bụrụ na etinyere ya ** Oyi oyi-Frontal Rainband (NCFR)** karịrị 15 mm/hr. |
| ** AR nwamba 4 (oke)** | IVT 750 to 1,000 kg/m/s (24 to 48 hrs) MA ọ bụ >= 1,000 kg/m/s (< 24 hrs) |
** Nke kachasị dị ize ndụ, dịkwa uru *** | ** Nnukwu idei mmiri ***, oke ala ugwu juru ebe niile, ihe mkpofu ọkụ ọkụ gachara, ebe a na-asachapụ okporo ụzọ, na nnukwu mkpọsa mmiri. |
| ** AR nwamba 5 (pụrụ iche)** | IVT >= 1,000 to 1,250+ kg/m/s na-adịgide adịgide >= 24 to 48+ hours (ma ọ bụ AR Cat 4 na-adịgide adịgide > 48 hours)* |
** Nke kacha ewu ewu (Odachi)** | ** Oke idei mmiri juru ebe niile , mmebi levee, mmiri ozuzo nke mmiri ozuzo na-efe efe nke ọtụtụ mita, ịgbalite okporo ụzọ mberede mmiri mmiri, na mgbaka ndagwurugwu ogologo oge ( ARkStorm-klas mmetụta **). |
2. Gịnị bụ USGS "ARkStorm" (Atmospheric River 1,000) Megastorm Scenario?¶
Ndị U.S. haziri Geological Survey (USGS) *** na ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị 117, ** ARkStorm *** abụghị echiche efu: ọ bụ nrụgharị physics dabere na akụkọ ihe mere eme ** Nnukwu Iju Mmiri nke 1861 ruo 1862 ** (nke tụgharịrị Central Valley California n'ime oke osimiri 480 kilomita ogologo na ogologo nke 30 kilomita) ejikọta ọnụ site na oge osimiri abụọ nke ikuku ọgbara ọhụrụ (January 1969 and February 1986).
- Cores sedimenti geologic sitere na mmiri mmiri na Santa Barbara Basin varves na-egosi na oke mmiri ozuzo nke ARkStorm na-eti North America West Coast n'ụzọ siri ike ** 100 ruo 200 afọ (an annual exceedance probability between 1-in-100 and 1-in-500).
- ** Ihe kpatara ezinaụlọ AR ji na-emebi nke ukwuu:** Otu ARkStorm nwere usoro 20 ruo-40 nke azụ azụ azụ AR Cat 3, Cat 4 na Cat 5 nke oke ikuku na-egbochi ikuku kwụsịrị. Oké ifufe abụọ mbụ na-ejupụta ala ugwu ruo 100% ikike ubi ma jupụta n'elu mmiri mmiri ruo n'elu ọdọ mmiri ha na-achịkwa ide mmiri; mgbe oke mmiri ozuzo nke atọ na nke anọ na-ekpo ọkụ Pineapple Express dara n'ụbọchị 15 ruo 25, ** ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ 100 pasent nke mmiri ozuzo na snow na-agbaze na-atụgharị ozugbo banye n'oké mmiri ozuzo.
Ihe ize ndụ atọ dị iche iche nke ugwu ruo na ndagwurugwu n'oge Osimiri ikuku¶
1. Ọkụ na-ekpo ọkụ nke ọkụ na-ekpo ọkụ mgbe ọkụ ọkụ gachara (nke NCFR kpalitere)¶
Mgbe ọkụ ọhịa na-ere oke ọhịa chaparral, pine, ma ọ bụ eucalyptus dị elu, osisi vaporized na-agbakọta 2 ruo 5 centimeters n'okpuru ala ahụ, na-esi nri ** mmiri na-egbochi mmiri (hydrophobic) oyi akwa ** nke na-akwasa mmiri ozuzo dị ka pavement asphalt.
- ** Ihe na-akpata mmiri ozuzo dị warara-Frontal-Frontal (NCFR):** Ọbụlagodi n'ime oke mmiri ozuzo AR Cat 2 ma ọ bụ Cat 3 na-agafeghị oke, aguba dị nro (5 km wide) ahịrị squall convective n'akụkụ ihu oyi a na-akpọ ** NCFR ** nwere ike ịwụfu 15 to 40 millimeters (0.6 to 1.6 inches) of rain in just 15 to 30 minutes .
- ** Ntugharị ọsọ ọsọ: ** Oke mmiri ozuzo USGS gachara na-egosi na oke mmiri ozuzo nkeji nkeji 15 karịrị. 24 mm/hr (0.95 in/hr)** na afụ ọkụ ọhụrụ (1 to 2 years post-fire) na-ewepụ oyi akwa niile dị n'elu site na ịsa mpempe akwụkwọ na nbibi, na-ejupụta na ntụ, osisi, na nkume ndị nwere ụgbọ ala n'ime ngwa ngwa ** irighiri ihe na-asọpụta** (30 to 80 km/h) nke na-esi n'ugwu ndị dị n'ugwu gafere gafee ndị na-akwado obodo ndị dịpụrụ adịpụ (dị ka e mere na January 2018 na-egbu egbu Montecito, California irighiri ihe).
2. Ịgụ elu Dam & Reservoir ọkwa na Spillway Cavitation ịdọ aka ná ntị¶
Mgbe ị na-elele dam gị dị elu n'oge osimiri ikuku (site na ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri steeti/Federal dị ka ** California CDEC ***, ** USACE Water Management ***, ma ọ bụ **USBR ***), ghọta mpaghara kwụ ọtọ nke ọdọ mmiri yana ka olulu mmiri si ada:
====================================================================================
ANATOMY OF A DAM RESERVOIR POOL & SPILLWAY CAVITATION / EROSION FAILURE
====================================================================================
[ DAM CREST (Top of Earthen / Concrete Dam: Overtopping = Total Dam Breach) ]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[ SURCHARGE / EMERGENCY POOL ] --> Flows over UNLINED EMERGENCY AUXILIARY WEIR
>>> Risk: Headward gully erosion cuts back
toward weir crest -> Uncontrolled release
=================== [ TOP OF FLOOD CONTROL POOL (100% Gross Capacity) ] ==========
[ FLOOD CONTROL POOL (Reserved empty in winter to catch AR flood inflows) ]
* Discharged through Concrete PRIMARY SERVICE SPILLWAY (Radial Gates).
* >>> Risk at high flow: Joint uplift / CAVITATION blows out concrete slabs ->
High-pressure jet scours earthen dam abutment
=================== [ TOP OF CONSERVATION POOL (Normal Winter Max Level) ] =======
[ CONSERVATION / ACTIVE STORAGE POOL (Water Supply & Hydroelectric Turbines) ]
==================================================================================
[ DEAD POOL (Sediment Storage & Low-Level River Outlet Works) ]
====================================================================================
- ** Otu esi agbapụta ihe nrịbama nke mbụ na-ata ahụhụ-nrụgide na-ebuli elu na cavitation:** Mgbe mmiri gbadara n'okporo ụzọ mkpọda steepụ na 25 ruo 40 mita kwa nkeji (55 ruo 90 kilomita kwa elekere), ndị agha anụ ahụ abụọ na-awakpo slabs ndị ahụ:
- ** Nkwụsị-nrụgide Hydraulic Jacking:** Ọ bụrụ na mmiri dị elu na-abanye n'ime obere mgbawa ntutu isi ma ọ bụ nkwụsị nke nkwonkwo n'etiti slabs abụọ (
even a 5-millimeter lip), ike nke kinetic nke30 m/smmiri na-agbanwe ozugbo ka ọ bụrụ nrụgide dị elu dị n'okpuru slab (** hydraulic jacking ***), na-adọka mbadamba ihe dị mita 1 nke siri ike n'ala dị larịị wee kpughee ntọala ala dị nro dị n'okpuru na-eme ihe ike. - Vapor Cavitation Implosion: Ebe mmiri na-agba ọsọ na-asọfe n'okirikiri ma ọ bụ mgbawa na chute, nrụgide mmiri mpaghara na-adaba n'okpuru ikuku vepo, na-eme ọtụtụ nde ikuku uzuoku microscopic. Ọtụtụ narị afọ ka e mesịrị, ka afụ ndị ahụ na-abanye n'ime nrụgide dị elu na mgbada, ha ** na-arịọ n'ụzọ dị egwu **, na-agbawa ikuku akpata oyi n'ahụ nke na-ata oghere kwụ ọtọ site na kọmpụta siri ike na nchara.
- ** Ihe ịrịba ama ịdọ aka ná ntị a na-ahụ anya n'okpuru mmiri mmiri: *** Ọ bụrụ na ị hụ na mmiri na-acha ọcha na-atụgharị na mberede ** aja aja aja ma ọ bụ oroma-acha ọbara ọbara** (nke pụtara na ụgbọ mmiri ahụ agbajiwo n'akụkụ ihe ọkụkụ ahụ ma na-egwupụta ugwu ụrọ), ma ọ bụ ọ bụrụ na ndị ọrụ mberede na-ekwupụta na ọdọ mmiri ahụ ga-agafe ya ** enweghị enyemaka enyemaka mberede na-aga n'ihu na mpaghara mbụ na akụkọ ihe mere eme. ihe mberede na-agbapụta n'okporo ụzọ ***.
Tebụlụ ntụnyere: Mbipu ihe mkpofu ọkụ n'ọkụ gafere vs. Dam Spillway / Mmebi Surge vs. Lowland Basin Levee Iju Mmiri¶
| Akụkụ Hazard | Mbibi irighiri ihe na-efe efe mgbe ọkụ-ọkụ gachara (Alluvial Fan / Canyon Mouth) | Dam Spillway Failure/Mmebi Wave Surge (Osimiri Canyon & Ndagwurugwu Upper) | Ọdịda ala Basin Levee Breach & Iju Mmiri Azụ (Pala Valley / Delta) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ** Mkpebi akpata *** | ** Obere mmiri ozuzo dị oke ike (> 12 to 24 mm/hr maka 15 to 30 min*** n'oge NCFR n'elu a < 3-year ọkụ ọhịa na-ere ọnya |
**Mbabata mmiri na-agbakọ ọtụtụ ụbọchị *** na-ejuputa mmiri mmiri gara aga 100% Ọdọ mmiri Iju mmiri + ọdịda arụrụala nke isi ma ọ bụ ihe mberede wụsara |
** Ụbọchị ruo izu nke oke osimiri na-adịgide adịgide ** na-ejupụta leve ụrọ (seepage / sand boils) ma ọ bụ okpueze levee karịrị akarị |
| Oge ịdọ aka na ntị | ** nkeji (0 to 30 minutes ozugbo NCFR rutere n'ugwu) ***: chọrọ ịpụpụ ** 6 ruo awa 24 TUPU *** oke mmiri ozuzo abịarute |
** Oge awa (1 to 24 hours*** mgbe mmiri mmiri na-ebili n'ebe inyeaka weir ma ọ bụ ka a na-enyocha oke mbuze. |
** Oge awa ruo ụbọchị (6 to 72 hours*** dị ka elu iyi amụma hydrographs crest |
| ** Ọsọ ọsọ & Njupụta** | 10 to 25 m/s (35 to 80 km/h); njupụta 1.8 to 2.3 g/cm3 (slurry nke apịtị, osisi na nkume 10-ton) |
6 to 20 m/s (20 to 70 km/h* na nnukwu osimiri; Mgbidi mmiri na-ama jijiji, osisi ndị a kụpụrụ agbapụ na nkume ndị a kpụrụ akpụ |
0.5 to 3 m/s (2 to 10 km/h) pụọ n'akpịrị mgbawa; na-ejuputa polders na basins ** 3 ruo 8 mita (10 ruo 26 feet) omimi ** maka izu |
| ** Ị nwere ike ịchebe n'elu ụlọ ma ọ bụ ụlọ nke abụọ?** | Mba, Ọ BỤGHỊ. Oké nkume na apịtị dị elu na-etu osisi na ụlọ ndị e ji nkume wuo kpam kpam. ** Mwepụ n'azụ site na mpaghara fan bụ iwu.** | ** Ọ dịghị na canyon / nso dam *** (ebili mmiri na-emebi ihe niile). Naanị ebe mgbaba kwụ ọtọ n'akụkụ oke ide mmiri dị anya ma ọ bụrụ na ọ tọrọ atọ. | ** Ebe mgbaba kwụ ọtọ (2nd/3rd floor ma ọ bụ elu ụlọ nwere axe axe / ụzọ ọpụpụ windo)** nwere ike ịzọpụta ndụ gị ma ọ bụrụ ọnyà, mana ** ezola ezo n'uko ụlọ mechiri emechi na-enweghị ụzọ ọpụpụ n'elu ụlọ. |
Osisi Mkpebi Mkpebi Mberede¶
flowchart TD
A["AR Cat 3, Cat 4, ma ọ bụ Cat 5 Atmospheric River / Pineapple Express amụma"] --> B{"Chọpụta mpaghara egwu mpaghara gị akọwapụtara"}
B -- "Mpaghara 1: N'ime 5 km n'okpuru <Ahụhụ Ọkụ Ọkụ nke afọ 3" --> C["HIGH DEBRIS-FOW LETHALITY:: 1. Echela ka mmiri ozuzo malite; chụpụ mgbe ọpụpụ ịdọ aka ná ntị/nhazi okwu: 2. Ọ dịghị mgbe ị ga-echebe n'ala nke abụọ ma ọ bụ n'elu ụlọ (okwute na-etipịa ụlọ): 3. Ọ bụrụ na ọnyà apịtị tọrọ atọ n'abalị: sprint lateralally uphill perpendicular to creek."]
B -- "Mpaghara 2: N'ime Osimiri Canyon ma ọ bụ Ndagwurugwu N'okpuru nnukwu Dam" --> D{"Lelee ebe nchekwa nchekwa mmiri & Ọnọdụ mwụfu"}
D -- "Isi okporo ụzọ na-asọ oyi na-emebi (aja aja) ma ọ bụ ihe enyemaka enyemaka mberede na-achọ ịgbara" --> E["IMMEDIATE DAM INUNDATION EVACUATION:: 1. Wepụ LATERALLY (perpendicular to river) up valley wall (+15-30 m): 2. Ya adịla mgbe ị na-anya ụgbọ ala ala n'akụkụ ọdọ mmiri: 3. Were go-akpa, ọgwụ, na anụ ụlọ tupu okporo ụzọ gridlock."]
D -- "Ebe nchekwa mmiri dị n'okpuru ọdọ mmiri na-achịkwa iju mmiri na ebe a na-asọpụta adịghị" --> F["Nyochaa mwepụta mgbochi mmiri gọọmentị; pụọ n'akụkụ osimiri n'oge mwepụta cfs dị elu"]
B -- "Mpaghara 3: Ala Iju mmiri dị n'ala / N'azụ Levees River Earth" --> G{"Nyochaa Levees & River Stage"}
G -- "Levee n'ofe elu, slumping, ma ọ bụ ájá apịtị obụpde n'azụ levee" --> H["IMMINENT LEVEE BREACH:: 1. Wepụ basin ozugbo site n'okporo ụzọ dị elu: 2. Ejila mmiri gafere n'okporo ụzọ: 3. Ọ bụrụ na ọ tọrọ atọ site na ịrị elu ngwa ngwa: rịgoro n'elu ụlọ (na-adịghị ọnyà onwe gị n'uko ụlọ mechiri emechi)"]
G -- "Levees na-ejide" --> I["Kwadebe maka mwepu ọkụ ọtụtụ ụbọchị, mmechi okporo ụzọ, na azụ azụ mmiri nsị"]
Ọnụọgụ Mberede mpaghara na ọnụ ụzọ nleba anya osimiri / mmiri mmiri¶
- United States (California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Intermountain West): Kpọọ 911 maka nnapụta ozugbo.
- ** AR & IVT amụma:** Nyochaa CW3E (Scripps Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes) AR Scale amụma na **NOAA / NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Nnukwu ihu mmiri ozuzo.
- ** Mbiri ahịhịa na-agba ọkụ:** Lelee ** USGS Post-Fire Debris-Ntụle ihe ize ndụ na-efe efe ** yana ọkwa mberede ikuku ikuku (County)
Ready.gov/CalAlerts). - ** Ọkwa mmiri mmiri & ebe nchekwa: ** Nyochaa ebe nchekwa oge na mpụta na-apụta site na ** California Data Exchange Center (CDEC), ** USACE nweta mmiri, na ** US. Ụlọ ọrụ nkwughachi (USBR)**.
- Canada (British Columbia & Atlantic Canada): Kpọọ 911. Nyochaa Gburugburugburugburu Ebe obibi na mgbanwe ihu igwe Canada (ECCC) ntụle ikuku ikuku, ** BC amụma amụma amụma** ịdọ aka na ntị, yana mgbasa ozi ** Njikere Dị njikere ***.
- United Kingdom na Ireland: Kpọọ 999 ma ọ bụ 112. A na-enyocha osimiri ikuku ikuku oyi nke Atlantic (onye na-ahụ maka idei mmiri Cumbrian, Welsh na Scotland) ** Met Office *, ** Environment Agency , ** SEPA na ** Natural Resources Wales.
- European Union & Norway: Kpọọ 112. Soro ịdọ aka ná ntị site na Meteoalarm, NVE (Norway), yana ọrụ mmiri mmiri nke mba.
- Australia, New Zealand, Chile na East Asia: Kpọọ 000 (Australia), 111 (New Zealand, MetService Westland/Southern Alps AR alerts), 131/132 (Chile SENAPRED), ma ọ bụ 119 (Japan JMA linear rainband) nọmba mberede.
Ajụjụ a na-ajụkarị¶
Kedu ihe dị iche n'etiti udi 1 na oke ikuku ikuku nke 5 na nha NOAA / CW3E?¶
The Ralph/CW3E Atmospheric River Scale na-akwado oke ifufe site na AR Cat 1 (adịghị ike) ruo AR Cat 5 (pụrụ iche) dabere na nha anụ ahụ abụọ n'otu ebe enyere: ọnụ ọgụgụ kasị elu Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT, tụrụ na kilogram nke vapor mmiri na-asọfe n'ogologo 1-mita n'obosara na kọlụm IVT n'ogologo nkeji iri abụọ) n'arọ/m/s. Otu AR Cat 1 na-ebu 250 ruo 500 kg / m / s maka ihe na-erughị awa 24 ma na-emepụta mmiri ozuzo bara uru na snow ugwu. Otu AR Cat 5 na-akwado oke uzuoku nke 1,000 ruo 1,500+ kg/m/s maka awa 24 ruo 72+, na-atụfu 250 ruo 600 millimita (10 ruo 24 sentimita asatọ) nke mmiri ozuzo n'elu ugwu ma na-ebute ọdachi na-akpata oke mmiri ozuzo, oke mmiri ozuzo, ọdịda ala, na mmiri ozuzo.
Kedu ihe kpatara oke mmiri ozuzo Pineapple Express ji agbaze nnukwu snowpak nke ugwu ọsọ ọsọ karịa ihu igwe anwụ anwụ?¶
N'oge osimiri ikuku dị na Pineapple Express, ikuku okpomọkụ juputara na pasent 100 na-efefe n'obere snoo nke ugwu na ọsọ ọsọ nke 50 ruo 100 kilomita kwa elekere yana ọkwa oyi karịrị mita 2,800 (ụkwụ 9,200). Ọ bụ ezie na ikpo ọkụ nke mmiri ozuzo na-ada n'onwe ya na-agbaze ntakịrị snow, ikuku na-eme mkpọtụ na-eme ka ikuku mmiri na-ekpo ọkụ ozugbo banye n'elu snow oyi. Giram mmiri ọ bụla nke na-ejupụta na snow na-ewepụta 2,500 Joules nke okpomọkụ latent, ike zuru ezu iji gbazee gram 7.5 nke ice. Ejikọtara ya na ọkụ ikuku nwere ezi uche, ọkụ ikuku ikuku na-agbaze ngwa ngwa 50 ruo 150 milimita nke mmiri mmiri n'ime akpa snow ebe 200+ milimita nke mmiri ozuzo na-ada n'elu, na-agbakọta ọnụ ma ọ bụ okpukpu atọ.
Kedu ihe kpatara na ị gaghị enwe ike ịlanarị ihe mkpofu ọkụ gachara site n'ịrịgoro n'ala nke abụọ ma ọ bụ n'elu ụlọ gị?¶
N'ime mmiri idei mmiri na-eji nwayọ na-ebili, ịrịgo n'ala nke abụọ ma ọ bụ elu ụlọ na-eme ka ị nọrọ n'elu mmiri ka ụlọ ahụ na-eguzo. Ihe mkpofu ọkụ na-ekpo ọkụ mgbe ọkụ gasịrị abụghị mmiri mmiri: ọ bụ mmiri na-ekpo ọkụ nke 60 ruo 80 pasent apịtị, ash, osisi pine a gbapụrụ agbapụ, na nkume granite 5 ruo 20-ton na-ejegharị na 30 ruo 80 kilomita kwa elekere na njupụta nke mmiri mmiri (gram 2.0). Mgbe ihe mkpofu juru na nkume na-adaba n'ụlọ osisi ma ọ bụ brik, ike mmetụta dị 10 ruo 50 ugboro karịa mmiri doro anya, na-akpachasị ụlọ ahụ dum na ntọala ya ma na-egweri nke mbụ na nke abụọ ọnụ. Ị ga-apụrịrị na mpaghara ihe mkpofu tupu mmiri ozuzo abịarute.
Kedu ihe bụ mmiri ozuzo dị warara na ihu igwe ihu (NCFR), gịnị kpatara o ji bụrụ nkeji 30 kacha dị ize ndụ nke osimiri ikuku?¶
Oke mmiri ozuzo dị warara-Frontal (NCFR) bụ ihe ike na-eme ihe ike, nke dị kilomita 3 ruo 8 nke nnukwu mbelata na oke mmiri ozuzo na-adaba n'akụkụ ihu oyi na-atụ nke osimiri ikuku. Ọbụlagodi na oke mmiri ozuzo bụ naanị AR Cat 2 ma ọ bụ Cat 3 na-agafeghị oke, ụzọ NCFR gafere n'elu mkpọda ugwu na-atụfu 15 ruo 40 millimeters (0.6 ruo 1.6 sentimita) nke mmiri ozuzo n'ime naanị nkeji 15 ruo 30, na-esonyere ya na ikuku ifufe 90 km / h na oke ifufe na-adịghị ike. Mmiri mmiri ozuzo nkeji iri na ise na-agbawa ngwa ngwa na-agafe ọnụ ụzọ ike USGS (24 mm/hr) nke na-ebute mbibi mbibi ọkụ ọkụ gachara na oke idei mmiri mepere emepe.
Kedu ka ọgba aghara nke Oroville Dam 2017 siri mee, oleekwa ihe ịrịba ama ịdọ aka ná ntị na-ebute ụzọ ọdịda mberede mberede?¶
N’ọnwa Febụwarị afọ 2017, mgbe izu mmiri nke oke ikuku jupụtara n’Ọdọ Mmiri Oroville nke California, mmiri na-agba ọsọ na-agbapụ n’okporo ụzọ awara awara awara awara awara awara abanyela na ntụpọ nkwonkwo, na-emepe nnukwu olulu mmiri n’ebe a na-adọkpụ ihe ma na-egwugharị n’akụkụ ugwu ụrọ. Iji zere ibibi ọnụ ụzọ ámá ndị na-agbapụta mmiri, ndị na-arụ ọrụ na-ebelata mpụta mgbe mmiri na-ekpo ọkụ na-abanye n'ime ọdọ mmiri ahụ, na-amanye mmiri ka ọ gafere ebe mgbaba ihe enyemaka ụrọ na-adịghị edozi maka oge mbụ kemgbe e wuru dam ahụ na 1968. Ịgbanye mmiri na-agba ọsọ ngwa ngwa emebi miri gullies azụ azụ na-achịkwa ihe mberede mberede nke mmiri ọkụ nke na-eyi egwu na-adịghị egwu mgbidi. 188,000 ndị mmadụ n'okpuru. Mgbe ọ bụla ọdọ mmiri na-abịaru nso 100 pasent ike mmiri idei mmiri mgbe ebe isi ya mebiri ma ọ bụ mebie ya, ndị bi n'okpuru mmiri kwesịrị ịkwado maka mbupụ n'akụkụ ozugbo.
Kedu ihe bụ 'ofi ájá' n'azụ levee osimiri, gịnịkwa mere ị ga-eji pụọ ma ọ bụrụ na ị hụ otu?¶
Mgbe osimiri na-anọ n'elu megide leve ụrọ ruo ụbọchị ole na ole n'oge usoro mmiri nke ikuku, nnukwu nrụgide mmiri nke hydrostatic na-eme ka mmiri ahụ gbadaa site na gravel ájá dị n'okpuru ala levee. Ọ bụrụ na nke ahụ a na-agbanye n'okpuru ala na-agbaji n'elu ala dị n'akụkụ ala akọrọ nke levee (n'ọhịa, olulu mmiri, ma ọ bụ n'azụ ụlọ), ọ na-apụta dị ka obere ugwu mgbawa nke mgbanaka ájá nke a sachara ọhụrụ ma ọ bụ silt apịtị gbara gburugburu. Okpokoro aja na-asọpụta na mmiri doro anya nwere ike kwụsie ike, mana ntụ ntụ na-ebupụta mmiri apịtị na ájá pụtara na ọwara ala na-emebisi ike n'okpuru levee, nke nwere ike ime ka okpueze levee daa ma mebie n'ime nkeji ole na ole.
Isi mmalite na nduzi ọchịchị¶
- ** Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E, Scripps Institution of Oceanography) & National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, United States):** * Ọnụ ọgụgụ iji mara ike na mmetụta nke osimiri ikuku * (Ralph et al., * Akwụkwọ akụkọ nke American Meteorological Society to Cat5, Catalonia Catalonia, Cat5, Category, Category, Category, Category & Category 1.
IVTna nkọwa oge). - ** U.S. Nnyocha mbara ala (USGS, United States):** Ntụle nke ọnọdụ ARkStorm (Akụkọ Open-File US 2010-1312) na USGS Post-Fire Debris-Flow Hazard Assessment Program (15 nkeji oke oke mmiri ozuzo na oke mmiri ozuzo dị warara)
- ** Ụlọ Ọrụ Na-ahụ Maka Mberede Federal (FEMA) & US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, United States): *** Ntuziaka Federal maka Nchekwa Dam, Atụmatụ Emergency Action (FEMA P-64), Spillway Cavitation/ Stagnation-Pressure Uplift Mechanics, na Levee Seepage/Sand Sise.
- ** Ndị otu Forensic nọọrọ onwe ha (IFT) Akụkọ banyere ihe mberede mmiri mmiri Oroville (ASDSO / USSD, United States):** * Nyocha gbasara nyocha nke ọrụ Spillway Chute Uplift na Mkpọpu isi ihe mberede na-enweghị ntụpọ*.
- ** Gburugburu Ebe Obibi na Mgbanwe Climate Canada (ECCC) & World Meteorological Organisation (WMO):** * Orographic Rain-on-Snow (ROS) Turbulent Latent Heat Flux Physics na amụma Iju Mmiri Basin*.
Were usoro enyemaka mbụ gbaara ezi àmà wee kpọtụrụ ndị ọkachamara
Ntuziaka a na-enye ọzụzụ meteorological mberede, mmiri mmiri, na mwepu na anaghị edochi iwu ọpụpụ ndị ọrụ ma ọ bụ nlekọta ahụike ọkachamara. Iji wulite nkà bara uru n'ịgwọ trauma idei mmiri, hypothermia, na ihe mberede obi, were usoro enyemaka mbụ agbaziri agbaziri site na Red Cross, St John Ambulance, ma ọ bụ onye na-eweta mpaghara.